November 30, 2007
Calling the early states
I want to go on record by saying that Ron Paul's best chance of winning among the early states is in Nevada. Aside from the generally Libertarian bent of the silver state, Paul is the only candidate who thinks the federal government overstepped its bounds with the Yucca Mountain nuclear waste site, a fairly important issue to many Nevadans. And except for Paul, most candidates aren't spending time there among the voters. If they're in the state at all it's for fund-raising in Las Vegas.
Voter turnout also plays a factor. Unlike New Hampshire where almost everyone votes, voter turnout among Nevadans will likely be small. It's much harder to get people to go and caucus than it is to get people to go vote at a polling place. The fact that he has a somewhat narrow base won't hurt him because his base is extremely committed. His 8% in the state overall (and probably closer to between 12 and 15% by voting day) is going to have very high voter turnout. With a fractured GOP field, he only needs about 30% of the actual vote to guarantee himself the winner. I predict he'll win with a comfortable margin over the second place candidate.
While I'm making predictions, I'll also go for a Huckabee win in Iowa, and for similar reasons to Paul in Nevada. Again, a caucus state, and Huckabee supporters are clearly more passionate about their candidate than Romney supporters. That "statistical dead heat" they've been running in the polls really doesn't mean a lot unless both groups of supporters are also equally committed. They're not, so the tie goes to Huck.
It will be interesting to see what happens to Paul's news presence after winning some national delegates. Will the exposure be enough to propel him forward on Super Tuesday? I hope so.
